Wilson et al.—Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption

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Home < Publications < Our Journals < New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research < 2009

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A08004; Online publication date 4 February 2009
Received 5 January 2008; accepted 5 October 2008

New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research, 2009, Vol. 52:99–110
0028–8233/09/5201–0099 © The Royal Society of New Zealand 2009

New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research abstracts

Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: an example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Thomas Wilson

Andre Dantas

Jim Cole

Natural Hazards Research Centre
University of Canterbury
Private Bag 4800
Christchurch 8140, New Zealand

thomas.wilson@pg.canterbury.ac.nz

Abstract Livestock evacuation from farms affected by volcanic ashfall during or following a moderate to large volcanic eruption of Taranaki volcano would pose serious logistical challenges for emergency organisations. The volcanic hazards present during the eruption (such as volcanic ashfall) have the potential to significantly disrupt farming and transport operations in widespread areas both near to and far from the volcano. This paper presents a simplistic model that estimates the time and resources required to evacuate dairy cows from a large eruption from Taranaki volcano in New Zealand. Whilst intended to highlight the scale of time, money and logistics required for a large livestock evacuation, the model also provides a first step towards a model which can be run during periods of volcanic crisis to aid decision making. The model estimates that for a total evacuation of cows from dairy farms impacted by 100 mm of ashfall 208 000 cows would need to be evacuated and it would take at least 43 600 man-hours and cost >NZ$2,000,000. It would take 264 livestock truck and trailer units to evacuate this number of cows in 7 days, or 88 units in 21 days. It is therefore recommended that large-scale livestock evacuation and relocation should not be considered in future volcanic crisis planning, due to the large logistical requirements a large livestock evacuation would require in terms of time, livestock evacuation transport units, and lack of capacity of farms in surrounding regions to support the massive influx of additional livestock.

Keywords agriculture; livestock evacuation; modelling; New Zealand; Taranaki volcano; volcanic hazards