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2005 Academy Yearbook

The 2005 Academy Yearbook details the accomplishments of the Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand throughout the year.

Frank Foster Evison

OBE MA BSc NZ PhD Lond DIC FRSNZ

1922–2005

Frank Foster Evison

Frank Evison

FRANK EVISON was born in Christchurch in 1922. He graduated from Victoria University of Wellington with a BSc in physics in 1944 and an MA with Honours in mathematics in 1946. During this time he also served in the Royal New Zealand Air Force, where he gained a commission and became the commanding officer of a radar station. After the war, he traveled to Britain where he gained a Diploma from the Imperial College of Science & Technology and a PhD in geophysics from the University of London.

On his return to New Zealand, he joined the newly formed Geophysics Division of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, where his early work was in exploration geophysics. He developed an electromagnetic transducer as a seismic source and then discovered coal-seam-guided S waves (Nature 1955, v.176: 1224–1225), which in 1985 Edwards et al. named “Evison waves” (Geophysics 1985, v.50: 214–223).

The International Geophysical Year of 1957 included a major programme of exploration of Antarctica. Frank’s contribution was a demonstration, using surface wave dispersion, that Antarctica was a continent with a crustal thickness of 30–40km (Nature 1959, v.183: 306–308).

His research was becoming recognised and rewarded. He gained a Nuffield Fellowship in 1957 and a Fulbright Award in 1963.

In 1960he became superintendent of the Seismological Observatory, a section of Geophysics Division, and in 1964he became the Division’s director. During this time he suggested an alternative explanation for observed palaeomagetic pole rotations, namely that they resulted from the slow flow of continental rocks under gravity (Nature 1962, v.194: 644–646). As a reason for poles’ rotation it may have been wrong, but the idea that continental rocks could behave as fluids anticipated such thinking by decades.

Frank was an able administrator as well. During his directorship, the New Zealand seismograph network had a major upgrade. Many new stations were installed, including the first sets of three component seismographs at stations other than the Observatory’s home in Wellington.

An example of Frank’s direct approach to science is given by Evison’s Wall. In the 1960s, there were many scientific questions about the then newly important Alpine fault, including whether, like parts of the San Andreas fault, it was creeping? Someone proposed that periodic surveys be conducted to test this. Repeated surveys would have been very expensive. Instead, Frank arranged to have a wall built across the fault at a location near Maruia. The wall still stands there, unbroken. The Alpine fault did not creep!

In 1967he was appointed inaugural Professor of Geophysics at Victoria University of Wellington. Four years later he established the Institute of Geophysics. His vision was for an interdepartmental Institute with associate members outside the university as well. The Institute would thus provide a linkage for all those in Wellington who were active or interested in geophysics. So it remains today, notwithstanding many institutional changes over the years. The Institute of Geophysics continues to be an area of research strength at Victoria, and many graduate students who learned about the physics of the Earth at Victoria owe thanks to Frank for their education and their careers.

It was during the early 1970s that Frank began his research into earthquake forecasting that would continue until his death. His interest in earthquake occurrence was firmly rooted in his views about what science should be about and what a scientist’s duty was. Earthquakes were a social threat that caused loss of life and suffering. It was therefore the job of science to do something to mitigate this threat. And it was Frank’s self-imposed duty to do what he could, as a scientist, to enable that mitigation.

Frank was persuaded that the Earth signaled its preparation for large earthquakes. If one could read those signals, then warnings could be given and lives and property saved. The fact that prediction was difficult, that others tried and failed, and that yet other people were skeptical that it was possible at all, did not deter him. The easy problems could be left to others. An idea must be persisted with until it was proved to be wrong.

Frank’s persistence with an idea led him into many heated arguments. His suggestion that earthquake faults may be “but a gross form of earthquake damage” (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1963, v.53: 873–891) enraged his geologist colleagues. Later he admitted privately: “I was wrong, of course, but I had a lot of fun.”

His first interest in earthquake precursors was in the then newly proposed idea of dilatancy: that at a critical state of stress cracks would open in rocks, thereby altering their mechanical properties. Frank had acquired the first portable seismographs in New Zealand. In an early experiment, the focal mechanisms of aftershocks of the 1968 M 7.4 Inangahua earthquake, recorded in 1972, showed a major difference from the mechanism of the mainshock, which Frank and co-workers attributed to dilatancy (Nature 1973, v.246: 471–473).

However, Frank’s first attempt at a forecasting model was the precursory swarm hypothesis. Fluctuations in seismicity before a large earthquake could, Frank believed, be used quantitatively to forecast the subsequent event (Nature 1977, v.266: 710–712). At about this time he started his collaboration on this work with a statistician, David Rhoades. The partnership continued until the day of his death.

Prediction of consequences from a theory is intrinsic in science. Therefore Frank argued that an earthquake forecaster’s duty was to make predictions and test them against what would happen. He firmly believed that an assessment of reliability had to be part of any forecasting method. This required substantial testing, using data obtained subsequent to that from which the model had been constructed. He was so firm on this point that he successfully persuaded a New Zealand Prime Minister that a public announcement of a forecast was inappropriate because the method was inadequately tested. In discarding what he rightly called the anecdotal approach to earthquake prediction and insisting upon what is now known as prospective testing, Frank was decades ahead of the rest of the world.

In the late 1970s, scientific enthusiasm for earthquake prediction burgeoned. Frank helped to formulate an International Code of Practice for Earthquake Prediction. In 1979, he headed up a UNESCO conference on earthquake prediction in Paris, and was secretary and later chairman of the Commission on Earthquake Prediction of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior.

In time, scientific enthusiasm waned. The view that earthquake prediction is impossible began to prevail. The arguments for this did not persuade Frank. As time went by and new data came to hand, the model for precursory seismicity evolved, reaching its culmination with the Precursory Scale Increase – or Ψ – phenomenon. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2004, 161: 47–72) in which Frank and David provided 47 examples of an increase in seismicity before large earthquakes in California, Greece-Turkey, Japan and New Zealand.

In 1988 Frank retired from the chair of geophysics at Victoria. This meant that he had more time for research! Until a few days before his sudden illness and death he was not just a regular, but indeed a daily attendee at the Institute of Geophysics. He was often there at weekends and after hours. Before his retirement he made a full contribution to the academic life of the university through teaching, research and administration. He was an active member of the Professorial Board. After retirement his participation in the research activities of the university continued. He also continued to make a collegial contribution through social intercourse with staff and students, not only about science but also in debates about the events of the day, politics, music, and any of Frank’s other interests that happened to be under discussion. As in his science, Frank often questioned the prevailing view of the issue, always for good reasons which he enjoyed arguing. If Frank approached you and said, “Now, you’re a geophysicist…” or “You’re a seismologist…” it was the preamble to a sharp question that would require you to agree with him or argue convincingly against a new idea. Most of this activity took place in the School of Earth Sciences, but Frank did not forget his roots as a physicist, and continued to give seminars to his colleagues in the School of Chemical and Physical Sciences.

The news of Frank’s terminal illness and rapid demise produced a universal reaction of shock and sorrow. Frank will be missed very deeply by his family and all his colleagues.

Bibliography

  • Evison, F. F. 1951: A new approach to the study of elastic propagation in rocks. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 6: 209–221.
  • Evison, F. F. 1952: The inadequacy of the standard seismic techniques for shallow surveying. Geophysics, 17:867–875.
  • Evison, F. F. 1953: An improved electromechanical seismic source tested in shattered rock. New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology. B, General section 35:4–13.
  • Evison, F. F. 1954: Early arrivals in seismic prospecting. Nature 173:1047.
  • Evison, F. F. 1955: A coal seam as a guide for seismic energy. Nature 176:1224–1225. Reprinted 1986: Pp. 278–280 in: Coal Geophysics, Geophysics Reprint Series No. 6, Buchanan, D. J.; Jackson, L. J. eds. Society of Exploration Geophysicists.
  • Evison, F. F. 1956a: Seismic waves from a transducer at the surface of stratified ground. Geophysics 21:939–959.
  • Evison, F. F. 1956b: The seismic determination of Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio for rocks in situ. Geotechnique 6:118–123.
  • Evison, F. F. 1957: The pulsed vibrator as a seismic source. Geophysical Prospecting 5: 381–391.
  • Evison, F. F. 1960: On the growth of continents by plastic flow under gravity. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 3:155–190.
  • Evison, F. F. 1961: Rock magnetism in Western Europe as an indication of continental growth. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 4:320–335.
  • Evison, F. F. 1962: Rock magnetism and low angle faulting. Nature 194:644–646.
  • Evison, F. F. 1963a: Earthquakes and faults. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 53:873–891.
  • Evison, F. F. 1963b: Lessons from Agadir. New Zealand Engineering 18:369–371.
  • Evison, F. F. 1963c: Thickness of the earth’s crust in Antarctica and the surrounding oceans: a reply. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 7:469–476.
  • Evison, F. F. 1966a: Earthquake wave anomalies in New Zealand. p.19–24 in: Vesiac report on seismic signal anomalies.Ann Arbor, University of Michigan.
  • Evison, F. F. 1966b: Earthquakes. Vol. 1. Pp. 509–516 in: AnEncyclopaedia of New Zealand. McLintock, A. H. ed. Wellington, Government Printer.
  • Evison, F. F. 1966c: Polarity of the earthquake source. Nature 211:273–275.
  • Evison, F. F. 1967a: Note on the aseismicity of Antarctica. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 10:479–483.
  • Evison, F. F. 1967b: Nuclear explosions and natural earthquakes. New Zealand Engineering 22:33–34.
  • Evison, F. F. 1967c: On the occurrence of volume change at the earthquake source. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 57:9–25.
  • Evison, F. F. 1967d: The polymorphic transition as a possible earthquake source. Pp.173–179 in: Vesiac report on source mechanism of shallow events.Ann Arbor, University of Michigan.
  • Evison, F. F. 1968: Active regions of the southwest Pacific. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 5: 1045–1049.
  • Evison, F. F. 1970: Seismogenesis. Tectonophysics 9:113–128.
  • Evison, F. F. 1971: Seismicity of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. Pp. 161–165 in: Recent crustal movements, Royal Society of New Zealand Bulletin 9, Collins, B. W.; Fraser, R. eds.Wellington, Royal Society of New Zealand.
  • Evison, F. F. 1975: Determination of precursory velocity anomalies in New Zealand from observatory data on local earthquakes. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 43: 957–972.
  • Evison, F. F. 1977a: Fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes. Nature, 266: 710–712.
  • Evison, F. F. 1977b: Precursory seismic sequences in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 20: 129–141.
  • Evison, F. F. 1977c: The precursory earthquake swarm. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 15: 19–23.
  • Evison, F. F. 1978: Long-term seismic precursor to the 1968 Inangahua earthquake, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 21:531–534.
  • Evison, F. F. 1981: Multiple earthquake events at moderate-to-large magnitudes in Japan. Journal of Physics of the Earth 29: 327–339.
  • Evison, F. F. 1982a: Earthquake forecasting and countermeasures planning. Earthquake Prediction Research 1: 115–124.
  • Evison, F. F. 1982b: Generalised precursory swarm hypothesis. Journal of Physics of the Earth 30: 155–170.
  • Evison, F. F. 1984a: Communications of earthquake predictions and warnings. Pp. 937–946 in: Earthquake Prediction: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction.Tokyo, Terra Scientific Publishing Company.
  • Evison, F. F. 1984b: Seismic hazard assessment in continental areas. Pp. 751–762 in: International Symposium on Continental Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction. Beijing, Seismological Press.
  • Evison, F. F. 1986: Earthquake generation and prediction. Pp. 209–234 in: Earthquake Prediction and Mitigation of Earthquake Losses: Proceedings of the UNDRO/USSR/UNESCO/UNDP Training Seminar. Dushanbe, Tadjikistan.
  • Evison, F. F. 1989: Time-variable earthquake hazard. Tectonophysics 169: 155–157.
  • Evison, F. F. 1993: Good science and public good science. New Zealand Engineering 48(3):6–7, 10.
  • Evison, F. F. 1999: On the existence of earthquake precursors. Annali di Geofisica 42:763–770.
  • Evison, F. F. 2001: Long-range synoptic forecasting: an aim for the millennium. Tectonophysics 338: 207–215.
  • Evison, F. F.; Ingham, C. E.; Orr, R. H.; Le Fort, J. H. 1960: Thickness of the earth’s crust in Antarctica and the surrounding oceans. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 3:289–306.
  • Evison, F. F.; Orr, R. H.; Ingham, C. E. 1959: Thickness of the earth’s crust in Antarctica. Nature 183:306–308.
  • Evison, F. F.; Reilly, W. I. 1956a: Deformation of strata in bord-and-pillar coal mines. I. Convergence observations. New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology B, General section 37:716–730.
  • Evison, F. F.; Reilly, W. I. 1956b: Deformation of strata in bord-and-pillar coal mines. II. Model analysis. New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology B, General section 38:129–138.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1981: Synoptic earthquake forecasting as a basis for disaster prevention. Pp. 25–29 in: Large earthquakes in New Zealand: anticipation, precaution, reconstruction, Royal Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Series 5, Cresswell, M. M. comp. Wellington, Royal Society of New Zealand.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1993: The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand: hypothesis tests. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 36:51–60.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1994: On the testing of earthquake precursors. Pp. 1–11 in: Electromagnetic Phenomena Related to Earthquake Prediction,Hayakawa, M.; Fujinawa, Y. eds. Tokyo, Terra Scientific Publishing Company.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1997: The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand: hypothesis tests II. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40:537–547.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1998: Long-term seismogenic process for major earthquakes in subduction zones. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 108: 185–199.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1999a: The precursory earthquake swarm and the inferred precursory quarm. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 42:229–236.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 1999b: The precursory earthquake swarm in Japan: hypothesis test. Earth, Planets and Space 51:1267–1277.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2000: The precursory earthquake swarm in Greece. Annali di Geofisica 43: 991–1009.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2001: Model of long-term seismogenesis. Annali di Geofisica 44:81–93.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2002: Precursory scale increase and long-term seismogenesis in California and Northern Mexico. Annals of Geophysics 45:479–495.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2004a: Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis. Pure and Applied Geophysics 161: 21–45.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2004b: Long-term seismogenesis and self-organized criticality. Earth, Planets and Space 56: 749–760.
  • Evison, F. F.; Rhoades, D. A. 2005: Multiple-mainshock events and long-term seismogenesis in Italy and New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 48(3): 523–536.
  • Evison, F. F.; Robinson, R.; Arabasz, W. J. 1973: Late aftershocks, tectonic stress and dilatancy. Nature 246:471–473.
  • Evison, F. F.; Robinson, R.; Arabasz, W. J. 1976: Microearthquakes, geothermal activity, and structure, central North Island, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 19: 625–637.
  • Evison, F. F.; Webber, S. J. 1986: Seismogenic stress conditions in central New Zealand. Pp. 553–565 in: Recent Crustal Movements of the Pacific Region,Royal Society of New Zealand Bulletin 24. Wellington, Royal Society of New Zealand.
  • Evison, F. F.; Whittle, P. 1961: The antipodal location of continents and oceans. Geological Magazine 98: 377–379.
  • Hamilton, R. M.; Evison, F. F. 1967: Earthquakes at intermediate depths in south-west New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 10:1319–1329.
  • Hamilton, R. M.; Evison, F. F. 1968: Reply to R. P. Suggate’s letter: Seismicity and structure in south-west New Zealand and the Macquarie Ridge. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 11: 1277.
  • Hatherton, T.; Evison, F. F. 1962: A special mechanism for some Antarctic earthquakes. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 5: 864–873.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1979: Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 59:43–56.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1984: Method assessment in long-range earthquake forecasting. Pp. 497–504 in: Earthquake Prediction: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction.Tokyo, Terra Scientific Publishing Company.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1989a: On the reliability of precursors. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 58:137–140.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1989b: Time-variable factors in earthquake hazard. Tectonophysics 167:201–210.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1993: Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor with clustering. Geophysical Journal International 113:371–381.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 1996: The VAN earthquake predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 23:1371–1373.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 2004: Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale. Pure and Applied Geophysics 161: 47–72.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 2005a: A tested method of long-range earthquake forecasting. Pp. 1–8 in: Planning and Engineering for Performance in Earthquakes: conference 2005 technical papers, Paper 06, Brabhaharan, P. ed. Wellington, New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. 2005b: Test of the EEPAS forecasting model on the Japan earthquake catalogue. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162: 1271–1290.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F. in press: The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan. Tectonophysics.
  • Rhoades, D. A.; Evison, F. F; Kozuch, M. J. 1998: Earthquake forecasting. Tephra 17:21–23.
  • Robinson, R.; Arabasz, W. J.; Evison, F. F. 1975: Long-term behaviour of an aftershock sequence: the Inangahua, New Zealand, earthquake of 1968. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 41: 37–49.
  • Thomson, A. A.; Evison, F. F. 1962: Thickness of the earth’s crust in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 5:29–45.

– Professor Euan Smith
Institute of Geophysics
Victoria University of Wellington
New Zealand

– Dr David Rhoades
Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences
Lower Hutt
New Zealand

 
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