Expert perspective: Len Cook CBE CRSNZ

"Most countries are facing unprecedented demographic change as increased longevity and declining fertility coincide with large and volatile migration flows. Some, like New Zealand, also have indigenous populations whose distinctive characteristics had been long ignored in public policy but are now significant contributors to the economic potential of the population. While public policy in New Zealand has long been developed and applied with little regard to the distinctive characteristics and needs of Māori, the size and dynamics of the Māori population now add to the population storm we face. Fast-growing new migrant communities are also contributing to the population’s economic potential.

This population storm makes policy delivery more vulnerable, as there is considerable variation in the effect of this storm on the urban settlements and communities around New Zealand.

In this, population statistics, estimates, and projections must compete with slogans, stories, and stereotypes on matters of public importance.

We see increasing variability in the scale and causes of population change at both a national and place-based level. This complicates predicting place-by-place who and where the future populations will be. There are very different and distinct investment risks involved in each aspect of emergency management, climate change, managing ecosystem integrity, or placing large-scale infrastructure investment and housing. Long-term fiscal projections now point to such a significant reduction in the fiscal outlook in 20 years’ time (of some 35%) that future governments cannot ignore the necessity of major changes to the current tax base. Large-scale changes to redistributive policies will have intergenerational consequences through the impact on all aspects of social services provided by government, the community and business. It will affect the scale of transfers, and the capacity for universal free provisional of some long-standing services. Education and other services for the young will also be affected by the coming decline in taxable capacity of the nation as a whole.

Raising productivity to offset the declining overall economic potential of the population resulting from large shifts in age structure will depend on the interaction between education, health, housing, working hours, occupation, and industry of employment. The implications of this extend not only to community-run services but to the capability of those who work outside paid employment, and these will all influence workforce productivity. Māori, Pacific peoples and immigrants will meet much of the need to recruit increasing numbers of new entrants to the workforce, including services which support the fast-growing population groups. However, Māori are expected to continue to have their current young population structure over the next 20 years and benefit from the consequent economic potential, while the economic potential of the European population will decline as it continues to age."

Published May 2025.

Throughout his career as an expert in population change and public policy, Len Cook CBE CRSNZ, has held many consequential positions, including as Government Statistician of New Zealand, and National Statistician of the United Kingdom. He was a member of the Royal Commission on Social Policy and is a former chair of the board of the Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit (Superu).