Emerging issues in health
The fifth event in 2025’s Parliamentary Science Forum was held on 25 Pipiri June. Dr Angela Baschieri shared sobering predictions about the health impacts of worsening climate change and Dr Josh McGeown told MPs about using MRI to diagnose brain damage from rugby injuries.
Dr Parmjeet Parmar MP chairs question time with Dr Angela Baschieri and Dr Josh McGeown
From global warming to local warning: Protecting the health of present and future generations
Dr Angela Baschieri, ESR
Dr Angela Baschieri, Science Leader on Climate Health Impacts at ESR, made an argument that climate change is the defining health challenge of our time. Here is her summary:
Where we stand
"Global temperatures hit a record 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, while in New Zealand/Aotearoa, the annual mean temperature is now 1.26°C above early-1900s averages, with eight of the ten hottest years since 2013. The WMO forecasts a 70% chance that the five-year global average through 2029 will exceed 1.5°C, 70% chance that the 2025–2029 global mean will exceed 1.5°C, and most scenarios point to ~3°C warming by 2100. Under these warming scenarios, today’s newborns could face up to five times more extreme climate events over their lifetimes than someone who is 50 now."
Climate change is already affecting our health
"Heat, drought, and extreme weather will impact health outcomes and indirectly affect health through changes in water, air, and food quality. Rising temperatures are disrupting rainfall patterns and increasing flash floods, cyclones, and heatwaves with consequences for public health. The World Health Organization estimates climate change could cause up to five million excess deaths globally between 2030-2050 and result in $2–4 billion yearly in health-related costs.
In New Zealand, climate change affects physical, mental, and social health, worsening inequities, aging, obesity, and preventable diseases[1]. A study of under-five hospitalisations over 20 years found that higher temperatures significantly increase admissions, especially for Māori, Pacific, and Asian children, with greater risks observed above 24.1°C in eastern coastal and densely populated areas with impact evidence across disease range of diseases such as respiratory, skin and infectious diseases[2]. Evidence shows rising temperatures and air pollution worsen respiratory conditions like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)[3][4]. Flooding and extreme rainfall events correlate with increased notifications of salmonellosis, leptospirosis, cryptosporidiosis, campylobacteriosis, and giardiasis, and higher hospital admissions for enteric diseases in children[5]. Climate-related disasters contribute to trauma, anxiety, depression, and eco-anxiety. Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 caused displacement, financial hardship, and anticipated long-term mental health impacts. Exotic diseases like dengue and Ross River virus are predicted to become more likely due to warming[6]."
The economic toll of climate-driven health impacts
"Similar to trends observed globally, climate change in New Zealand will not only place significant economic burdens on an already strained health system by increasing hospitalisations across all disease types—a risk that will intensify as the population ages—but will also affect economic and social systems, impacting both animal and environmental health.
The increased air pollution exposure has been estimated to have cost an extra NZ$15.6 billion in 2016[7]. The increased frequency of heavy rainfall and flooding, driven by a warming climate, compromises the integrity of drinking water networks and raises rates of acute gastrointestinal illness, with endemic waterborne diseases costing approximately NZ$38.5 million per year[8]. Climatic extremes further amplify zoonotic risks: Campylobacter infections from poultry consumption resulted in NZ$560 million in combined healthcare and productivity losses over 2009–2018[9], and the 2016 Havelock North waterborne outbreak, triggered by intense rainfall, imposed NZ$21 million in community costs[10]. These sector-specific studies collectively emphasize the complex financial burden that climate-sensitive health impacts impose on New Zealand’s healthcare system, underscoring the urgent need for integrated strategies for climate–health mitigation and adaptation.
Recognising that addressing the health impacts of climate change requires cross-sectoral adaptation and mitigation, in 2024 the Ministry of Health launched the Health National Adaptation Plan (2024–2027) with the aim to enhance climate-health resilience, promoting cross sectoral responses, community involvement, and ensuring equity thereby minimising future exposures and safeguarding the long-term health of all New Zealanders."
Evidence-informed solutions to protect the health of present and future generations
“To accelerate progress on these agendas, collaborative partnerships, both nationally and internationally, and across various sectors, are essential. Science-informed decision-making offers the opportunity to save money and identify smart, green adaptation measures”.
Across New Zealand/Aotearoa and globally, we already have robust tools and proven innovations to guide climate–health decisions. PHF Science is contributing to this agenda by delivering science-informed policies that strengthen resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Our surveillance systems, including real-time wastewater monitoring combined with genomic pathogen analysis and AI-driven analytics, are central to these efforts. Expanding these capabilities into a Pacific-wide surveillance and early-warning network would enhance monitoring both regionally and domestically. What’s needed now is to embed this knowledge into practice, through cross-sector collaboration, smart investment, and a commitment to equity, so that New Zealand can lead the way in building resilient, data-informed health systems for present and future generations."
Dr Josh McGeown speaking at Parliament.
Making the invisible visible: Enhancing assessment and treatment of mild traumatic brain injury using neuroimaging
Dr Josh McGeown, Mātai Medical Research Institute
Dr McGeown presented to MPs about his work with undetected brain injuries.
Traditional imaging technologies cannot reliably detect a “mild” brain injury – – the kind common with collision sports like rugby – but that doesn’t stop these kinds of injuries from causing lasting harm. Mild traumatic brain injuries (mTBIs) often lead to months of reduced quality of life, time missed from work or school, and escalating ACC payouts. Without accurate diagnosis, people with mTBIs may not receive the support they need for recovery.
Dr McGeown is using novel MRI-based techniques to develop a more sensitive test to detect mTBIs. For this, he collaborates with rugby players at a local high school, who undergo brain scans before, during, and after the rugby season to track changes in their brains. MPs saw images of brains before and after injury, using classic MRI or Mātai’s novel MRI method. Only the Mātai scans showed a repeatable difference post-injury.
Mātai hopes their new protocols will make these invisible injuries visible and enable more accurate diagnosis, streamlined care pathways, and significant socioeconomic savings.
Footnotes
[1] Te Whatu Ora. (2024). Health status report. https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/publications/health-status-report
[2] Lai, H., Lee, J. E., Harrington, L. J., Ahuriri-Driscoll, A., Newport, C., Bolton, A., Salter, C., Morton, S., Woodward, A., & Hales, S. (2024). Daily Temperatures and Child Hospital Admissions in Aotearoa New Zealand: Case Time Series Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 21(9), 1236. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph21091236
[3] Royal Society Te Apārangi. (2017, October). Human health impacts of climate change for New Zealand: Evidence summary (ISBN 978‑1‑877317‑29‑3). Royal Society Te Apārangi. https://www.royalsociety.org.nz/assets/documents/Report-Human-Health-Impacts-of-Climate-Change-for-New-Zealand-Oct-2017.pdf
[4] https://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/leptospirosis-cases-confirmed-in-humans-in-hawkes-bay-after-cyclone/A3EHP33CZJHPTGNYT2TYZUEMIE/
[5] Gilpin, B, et al. (2020) A large scale waterborne Campylobacteriosis outbreak, Havelock North, New Zealand, Journal of Infection, Volume 81, Issue 3,2020, Pages 390-395.
[6] Tompkins DM, Slaney D. Exploring the potential for Ross River virus emergence in New Zealand. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2014 Feb;14(2):141-8. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2012.1215. PMID: 24528096
[7] Kuschel, G., et al.. (2022, March). Health and air pollution in New Zealand 2016 (HAPINZ 3.0): Volume 1 – Findings and implications [Report]. Ministry for the Environment; Ministry of Health; Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport; Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency. https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/HAPINZ/HAPINZ-3.0-Findings-and-implications.pdf
[8] Moore D, Black M, Valji Y, Tooth R. Cost benefit analysis of raising the quality of New Zealand networked drinking water Wellington (NZL): The Law and Economics Consulting Group 2010. Accessed 14 Jun 2021. https://www.dia.govt.nz/diawebsite.nsf/Files/Havelock-North-Water-Inquiry-Stage-2-core-bundle/$file/CB230.pdf.
[9] Baker MG, Grout L, Wilson N. Update on the campylobacter epidemic from chicken meat in New Zealand: The urgent need for an upgraded regulatory response. Epidemiol Infect. 2020;149:e30. doi:10.1017/S095026882000299X.
[10] Gilpin, B, et al. (2020) A large scale waterborne Campylobacteriosis outbreak, Havelock North, New Zealand, Journal of Infection, Volume 81, Issue 3,2020, Pages 390-395.