New Zealand scientist up for a million-dollar prize

The Royal Society Te Apārangi has partnered with the Frontiers Research Foundation, based in Switzerland, as part of an international effort to accelerate scientific solutions to planetary challenges. In 2022, the Foundation established the Frontiers Planet Prize, with the ambition of mobilising scientists to address the ongoing global environmental crisis.

This year the Society nominated three candidates for the Frontiers Prize. Each had published scalable, evidence-based solutions to the planetary crisis.

Daniel is the first author of the paper ‘Ecological and evolutionary consequences of changing seasonality’, published in Science. Associate Professor Laura Revell, of Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha – the University of Canterbury, published ‘Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery’, and Professor Richard McDowell FRSNZ, of Te Whare Wānaka o Aoraki – Lincoln University, published ‘Anthropogenic nutrient inputs cause excessive algal growth for nearly half the world’s population’.

Daniel is one of 25 National Champions announced by the international jury today – on Earth Day. These 25 scientists will travel to Switzerland to connect with other leaders in this field, and in June, three will each be awarded US$1 million (about NZ$1.69 million) to fast-track their transformative research with the power to shape real-world outcomes.

Reflecting on the award, Daniel says: “Changes in the seasons are reshaping the natural world, affecting when species grow, migrate, reproduce, and interact. These changes matter because the stability and performance of ecosystems – and the benefits they provide to people – depend on predictable seasonal rhythms. 

“Our research shows how and why disruptions to these rhythms can cascade from individual organisms to whole ecosystems, revealing which systems are most vulnerable and which may be resilient to future change. By integrating seasonality into monitoring and management, we can better anticipate these impacts and help safeguard biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.”

Daniel explains that seasonal fluctuations occur in almost every ecosystem as a natural pulse, shaping species evolution and ecological processes.

“Because these patterns have historically changed relatively slowly, species have had time to adapt in myriad and often intricate ways. For instance, birds perform long migrations, insects and plants schedule the stages of their life cycles, and mammals change their behaviour and tune their bodies to survive the cold.

“But what happens when the seasonal cycles of the environment change at high speed, or even abruptly? Human activities are disrupting these cycles in less than a single generation.”

He says humans build dams (that disrupt seasonal cycles in rivers in less than a year) and clear forests (making summers hotter and winters colder for the organisms living there).

“This is, of course, in addition to seasonal shifts due to global climatic changes, such as decreasing predictability of seasonal rainfall and earlier seasonal snowpack melt.”

His paper takes on the question of how these changes to seasonality could affect biodiversity and ecosystems.

“Our research reveals that we are likely underestimating the ecological impacts of altered seasonality in many cases, but the severity of impacts will certainly vary from ecosystem to ecosystem.”

Daniel learned that he had been named National Champion for New Zealand just after submitting his PhD thesis, which includes the nominated publication.

“It was a moment of happiness and reflection, as this project had been years in the making. I immediately shared the news with Dr Jonathan Tonkin, my supervisor and an author of the paper, with whom I have had countless discussions about how this topic deserves much more attention.

“We both agree that this recognition feels like a major step toward bringing these issues to the forefront.”

Daniel says that understanding the ecological impacts of altered seasonality is a difficult but exciting challenge. If he wins the overall prize, Daniel plans to continue exploring the many links between seasonal fluctuations and the health of our ecosystems.

“Because these processes are incredibly complex in nature, our future research will move into experimental settings where we can manipulate seasonal patterns with more precision.

“I believe there is a great deal to learn from this experimental approach in combination with modern computer models. It will provide a much clearer and more mechanistic picture of how ecosystems will respond to a changing climate.”